Expect the S&P 500 to rise as much as 15% over the next six months as inflation cools and the Federal Reserve winds down its aggressive tightening campaign, Stifel says. The firm’s strategist Barry Bannister said in a note to clients on Sunday that the benchmark index should reach 4,300 by April 2023, assuming inflation eases and central bank hawkishness has peaked. “On the bullish side, we note that the history of the fight is like a fight against the Fed, and cumulatively over 60 years, the return of the S&P 500 is almost zero for the 6 months May-October, while the next 6 months (November-April) provide almost all the cumulative return” , Bannister said. The setup Bannister describes depends on no recession during the first half of 2023 and the Federal Reserve refraining from raising the 10-year TIPS yield. Also, the S&P must outperform the commodity index. “We don’t think a ‘classic’ U.S. recession has begun, yet the S&P 500 has already fallen in line with its post-World War II recession average,” he wrote. Bannister’s call comes after the S&P and major averages hit their best week since June. Strategists adjusted estimates as year-end approaches. BMO Capital Markets chief investment strategist Brian Belsky cut his year-end price target for the S&P to 4,300, saying he underestimated the impact of inflation. Other banks, including Citigroup , have lowered expectations in recent weeks. Short-term trends favor cyclical stocks such as crashes in semiconductors, media and entertainment and tech hardware, Bannister said. But to be sure, he sees risks ahead beyond 2023, noting that “secular bear market” underway over the next decade. This environment supports an active management strategy that favors defensiveness during slowdowns and cyclical action during recoveries, he added. “Longer term, from of the S&P 500 high as of January 3, 2021 (4,800 nominal, 5,100 real), we see the P/E ratio halved in the 10 years from 2021 to 2031. E offset by a doubling of EPS over the same period (7.2% CAGR) , making the S&P 500 price stable in 2031 versus 2021 in real or nominal terms,” Bannister wrote. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.