(Bloomberg) — October might revive ghosts and ghosts, but bitcoin bulls hoping for an “Uptober” are finding that even a typically positive month can’t revive the token’s price.
The top digital asset is down roughly 1% this month, which, if it closes at that level, would mark its first October decline since 2018, coinciding with the last time it was mired in crypto winter. At this time last year, Bitcoin had gained 40%, 30% the year before that, and 12% the year before that.
This year’s tepid moves have prompted Genesis analysts, among others, to wonder, “Ven Uptober?” That’s the name cryptocurrency fans have bequeathed to the usually positive month. “Ven” is their version of “when” and is used in memes and social media.
“When I think about Uptober, I usually look for something more than a flat green candle,” said Quantum Economics founder and CEO Matty Greenspan. “If Bitcoin is going to live up to the meme this month, it better start moving soon.”
Going into the month, die-hards were hoping that October would be a good one for the token, which has only seen three positive months this year. History was on their side: Bitcoin tends to rise roughly 25% during the month, and since 2015 has advanced more than 85% during that time, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
Bitcoin has been stuck in a tight range in recent weeks, with the coin mostly hovering around $20,000. On Monday, it traded around $19,300. Even big announcements, like the recent partnership with BlackRock Inc. with crypto platform Coinbase Global Inc., have failed to shake the asset class from its stupor.
Its lack of momentum, in contrast to its usual turbulent reputation, has led analysts to say that the coin, along with some others, has become less volatile over that time period. The average difference between last month’s high and low across the top 10 digital assets was only about 23%, according to data compiled by Bespoke Investment Group. Since the end of 2017, no other period has seen this level of serenity. As of early 2020, in fact, the average reading has been in the over 80% range, the researcher said.
“Given that we’re expecting a pretty hawkish Fed meeting in November, I don’t think we’re likely to get an Uptober,” said Max Gochmann, chief investment officer for AlphaTrAI. “I think many Bitcoin owners will be asking ‘Why-tober?’
The coin could still end October up or down 5% from the start, he said, adding that he expects the token to likely stay in the range it has been trading in for the past few months.
Wilfred Daye, chief executive officer of Securitize Capital, a digital asset management company, says the cryptocurrency market is being influenced by macro forces, including what the Federal Reserve has been doing on interest rates. That and the fact that Bitcoin became positively correlated with tech stocks during the Covid years is what is currently driving prices in a big way.
“We have been in a macro bull market since 2012 – KE worked in favor of BTC,” he said. “Macro risk-off sentiment is putting pressure on BTC.
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